Scot’s Newsletter Blog

From a salesman at a Toyota dealer I frequent, I heard some details about the next-generation Toyota Prius a couple of days ago. I can’t verify this information independently, but I believe it’s probably close to the truth:

1. The next-gen Prius (which may or may not be the 2010 or 2009 model) will get a new, more fuel-efficient 1.8-liter 4-cylinder gas engine from the 35-mpg 2009 Toyota Corolla. The new Prius will get higher gas mileage — probably mostly as a result of this new gas engine.

2. The new Prius body will have mild cosmetic updates, not a major upgrade. The body will have longer, sloping nose and will have a sportier appearance overall.

3. The new Prius will not have lithium-ion batteries, and I was told it will not have a larger electric motor (although that second point was conveyed with far less confidence).

4. The Prius name will be used on a small line-up of vehicles that are under development now.

5. Toyota is planning a new hybrid vehicle that will have Prius model-line badging and will be called the “Abat” (spelling?). It will be a hybrid 4×4 truck crossover based on the RAV4 platform combined with a drivetrain derived from the Camry Hybrid. My source described it as being a cross between the Subaru Brat of the late 1970s …

… and the Honda Ridgeline. It will have a fold-down rear wall that lets you extend the bed into the rear seat like the Ridgeline and Chevy Avalanche. When extended, the bed will be 6-feet long.

If this information about the Prius is true, Toyota may call the new drivetrain in next year’s Prius the third generation of its Hybrid Synergy Drive (hybrid technology), but if so it will be letting its marketing department get the best of it. Any new evolution of the hybrid technology should involve a system that lets the vehicle drive a bit faster and longer on electric power before the gas engine kicks in. In my opinion, it should also incorporate safe, longer-lasting, lighter-weight lithium-ion batteries.

That said, the new Corolla engine is EPA rated at 27 mpg city and 35 mpg highway. In its initial test, Consumer Reports got 32 mpg in the mixed driving and 40 mpg on the highway — with the 4-speed automatic. The gas economy of the new 1.8-liter Corolla engine is pretty impressive. A colleague of mine recently traded in his Toyota Tundra DoubleCab pickup for the new Corolla. He tells me he’s getting 40 mpg with it. He commutes 90 miles a day (both ways), and the Corolla has cut his gasoline consumption by half.

Outlook Worsening? Or Becoming More Realistic

I probably don’t have to tell you that things are getting worse on the oil front. Despite a recent temporary drop in oil prices, many experts believe we’re not going back to sub-$100-a-barrel oil prices. General Motors announced that it’s dropping its focus on big SUVs and turning its attention to building a small vehicle with a 1.4-liter engine for domestic consumption.

I think we can finally expect to see both a raft a new hybrids as well as many more small vehicles with small, highly fuel-efficient engines. The American consumer has gotten the message. In my area, there’s now as much as a six-month wait for the Toyota Prius. People are snatching up small cars rapidly. Car sales finally beat out truck sales in May. Things are changing rapidly.

My thinking has changed too. I had been planning to keep my 2004 Toyota Tundra DoubleCab as a luxury — a weekend-only vehicle. But I’m now thinking about trading it for some sort of hybrid vehicle, possibly even a second Highlander Hybrid. I realize my purist readers are going to bash me for the large hybrid if I go that way, but I’m giving up a vehicle with ultimate utility, and I’m going to need something I can haul stuff with. I do woodworking and landscaping myself, and I’m not prying my wife’s Highlander Hybrid out of her hands, or messing it up with my Home Depot runs. I’m thinking a used 2006 Highlander Hybrid, by the way. I can’t afford the new design. They’re way expensive. But I may have trouble locating a used one.

SNB reader and economist Giacomo Ponzetto sent a very interesting email questioning some of my thinking in An Increasing Priority: Fuel-Efficient Automobiles. One of the points he raised was whether this was the best time financially to buy a Toyota Prius. His point is that Toyota is gearing up to release the third generation of its Hybrid Synergy hybrid-electric technology. It’s also redesigning the body of the 2009 Prius.

We know very little about Toyota’s third-gen hybrid technology as yet, but what’s leaked out is that it’s supposed to offer better gas mileage and more power. The car is apparently also undergoing a redesign that may make it one-inch wider and three to four inches longer (according to various reports). Toyota may also be increasing the number of trim levels, and may eventually offer other vehicles with the Prius badge, including some sort of small minivan.

There is precious little information directly attributed to Toyota about any of details. In fact, there are a great many conflicting reports. One of the more recent stories from Edmunds Auto Observer is, however, worth a read. The story offers more detail than any other story I’ve read on this subject, and it pegs the launch date of the redesigned Prius as January 2009. A May 2008 Road & Track story also sheds some light on the topic. The rest of the links flesh out additional information, including what Honda is doing:

• Toyota Prius: Next Chapter Opens in January — Edmunds Auto Observer, 4/28/2008
• Exposed: 2009 Toyota Prius — Road & Track, May 2008
• Toyota Lays Down Hybrid Gauntlet — AutoWeek, 1/14/2008
• Toyota Prius: Chapter Three — Edmunds Auto Observer, 7/16/2007
• Honda to Add Three New Hybrids: 2010 Fit, CR-Z, and Small Hatchback — Car & Drive, May 2008
• Nissan plans mass production of lithium-ion batteries — Automotive News, May 19, 2008

This Popular Mechanics image, which may be a photo illustration, is likely not based on the actual final version of the new Prius. It appears to be an artist’s rendition of the 2009 Prius based on published descriptions of the new dimensions of the vehicle and changes to the nose. The refinements shown to the rear end, while attractive, are probably not in the cards. This Road & Track slideshow shows what it purports to be camouflaged 2009 Prius. If these images show something like the real deal for 2009, it’s a very mild cosmetic upgrade that might be nothing more than a mild refresh while we wait for the big change in 2010.

The Right Time to Buy?

Toyota, Honda, Nissan, GM, and Ford are just some of the world’s auto manufacturers that are gearing up in a big way to deliver major new hybrid line-ups and also plug-in hybrid vehicles over the next couple of years. 2010 is the likely arrival timeframe for many of these efforts. So, should you wait?

In my opinion, no — not if you’re already in the market for a new vehicle. The Prius and Honda Civic Hybrid are both viable vehicles right now that will save you money and cut back on harmful emissions right away.

The only steep-demand tax that consumers are paying Toyota right now is that dealers aren’t dealing off the suggested retail price of any of their hybrid models. In many U.S. markets, they’re completely sold out of hybrids but they’re continuing to sell them sight unseen “off the boat.” Customers don’t even get a pre-purchase test drive. Plus you’ll likely have to wait a couple of months to take delivery. But bottom line, the prices haven’t gone up yet.

Even if Toyota intends to hold the price on lower-end trim levels of the Prius, I have my doubts about whether it will be able to do so. Some of the factors that go into my thinking include the weakness of the dollar against the yen and other currencies, the cost of transportation, reduction or elimination of tax incentives, building demand for hybrids, possible limits on the production levels for the less expensive models, the worsening U.S. economy, and rising costs of manufacturing, both in the U.S. and overseas. In the 1990s, Toyota dealers in my area routinely slapped dealer mark-ups on their high-demand vehicles of as much as $2,000 above retail. Even though Toyota frowns on such practices, it could happen again.

What about the new technology? Might you have buyer’s remorse with the 2008 model?

I can’t say you won’t. I may feel that way if I buy a 2008 Prius. But there’s always something better around the corner. The real question is, is there be a significant reason to wait?

It appears that Toyota will be launching a new Prius in January. But will it be truly the next-gen hybrid technology, or is it a stopgap update while Toyota attempts to ramp up lithium-ion product? The Edmunds Auto Observer story implies that it’s all coming in early 2009, except the lithium ion batteries. The Road & Track story implies something that’s more likely. Toyota may offer three different levels: Base, Luxury, and Eco. That fits the company’s current situation. So, in that scenario, here are my guesses about the equipment levels for each trim level:

The Base model may have the current mpg levels and possibly the 1.5-liter engine with the existing nickel-metal-hydride batteries. It will be stripped way down to keep the price down. Some of the uplevel options won’t be available at all.

The Luxury model may get the 1.8-liter engine with the nickel-metal-hydride batteries. Gas mileage may suffer a little, but performance will be improved. This will be the most popular Prius sold, and it will probably be priced around $28,000 to $$29,000 depending on options.

The Eco model could have lithium-ion batteries if Toyota and its battery partner Panasonic can work out the production issues (and that’s a big if, in my opinion). The Eco model may have a June or July release date. This model could offer better than current Prius gas mileage with better than current Prius performance (on demand, but with a loss of gas mileage). But you’re going to pay for it. I expect this model to sell for as much as $32,000 to $33,000.

All three models will have the redesigned body style.

Of course, all of this is just my guesswork. The reality could be something very different. We might, for example, see only the new body design and Toyota’s improved Hybrid Synergy electric motor. The main advantage of that new motor is an increase of power output. If the weight is about the same as the old motor, or if it’s miraculously less, then Toyota should be able to run the car to higher speeds and for longer durations without switching on the gas engine. That would deliver notable improvements in fuel economy around town. Would Toyota dub that level of improvement its third-generation hybrid system? It just might. I’m pretty sure that, originally, Toyota had intended to factor lithium-ion batteries into that mix. But we’ll see.

I do think that Toyota will eventually get all this right. It’s trying to please both the eco and performance crowds. It did the same thing in miniature with the 2008 Highlander Hybrid. That’s why I bought the lighter, smaller 2007 model. I didn’t need a slightly bigger, heavier design. If the 2009 Prius tries to be more things to more people without significantly improving its HEV technology, then it might not offer the vaunted gas economy improvements that Toyota has leaked to the press here and there — at least, not until 2010.

In the end, it comes down to money. How many years will it take to pay-back your hybrid technology if the 2009 Prius costs more? Gas prices are very high right now. What about the loss of savings right now? I’m not an economist or an accountant. All I know is that, for me, it’s a good time to buy this year. If the cost of oil continues to climb, demand will ramp up that much quicker. And usually, prices of goods are determined by supply and demand.

What do you think? If you’re making a move to a new vehicle with better fuel economy, should wait for the barrage of new offerings waiting in the wings, or jump on what’s available now? There’s no right answer, but I’m interested in people’s insights and opinions. Feel free to post your comments or send me an email.

It’s been roughly nine months since I addressed the subject of alternative automobile fuels and fuel-efficient automotive technologies. I last wrote on the topic in these two stories late last summer:

• More Automotive Future: Clean Diesel
• A View of Our Automotive Future

Since then, average U.S. gasoline prices have risen from $2.74 per gallon to $3.88 per gallon (source: GasBuddy.com). In recent weeks, the average U.S. retail price of diesel has also risen dramatically (Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration); it’s currently up $4.49 per gallon. When I wrote very favorably about Clean Diesel last year, diesel prices were in something of a free fall and were almost $2.00 less per gallon on average than they are today.

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Living with the MacBook Air is not only possible, even for a power user, it changes the way you work and play in a positive way.

For the last month I’ve been living with Apple’s diminutive MacBook Air as my sole production computer for all professional and personal use. My previous main Mac was a 2007 2.4GHz 4GB RAM MacBook Pro 17 with the highest resolution Apple offers in a notebook. So I went from one Apple portable extreme (highest resolution, most power, heaviest) to the other (smallest, lightest, least powerful, least memory, weakest video). There are a number of trade-offs, but the positive outweighs the negative.

It happened that late April through May is a slow travel period for me, so while I’ve attended local events offsite, I haven’t hit the road yet. But in a couple of weeks, I’ll be on a tour that includes D.C., NYC, Boston, and Miami. The east coast thang. I’ll give the MacBook Air a thorough travel test then. Once that’s complete, I’ll write a full long-term review of the MacBook Air on Computerworld.com.

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I finally got around to requesting a MacBook Air, and received one last week sporting the solid-state drive and the 1.8-GHz CPU. The hardware that matters, though, is the super-thin case design.

At my Computerworld blog, I wrote recently that I’m changing my mind about the MacBook Air and embracing it for its elegance and usability as a travel computer. This contrasts with my three-month-old post in the days just before the MBA shipped in which, after a brief period of time with the early review unit Apple sent Computerworld, I took a harder line on the design compromises Apple made in creating the Air.

Check out my Computerworld blog for the details and my reasoning on the about-face. But if you want the bottom line, it boils down to this. I hope to acquire a MacBook Air as my “second” Mac for business use later this year.

Back in November I named Lexar’s 4GB JumpDrive Lightning a Scot’s Newsletter Blog Top Product! and I’ve been using it ever since. To give you a sense of how valuable a tool this is for me, I spent a day recently believing I had lost it (the biggest problem with USB memory devices), and just the thought made me feel clammy.

In the same article (scroll down to find it), I also presented the results of my performance testing of four USB devices, including the 4GB IronKey Secure Flash Drive. In my tests, the IronKey was not very fast. In a March 2008 secure USB drive comparison review in Computerworld, the same model IronKey (although, about six months newer than the evaluation unit that I tested), turned in excellent performance.

The Computerworld review tested a much slower Lexar device than the one I’ve recommended. It didn’t compare the JumpDrive Lightning, which has decent software-encryption security. Instead it compared the results of Lexar’s JumpDrive Secure II, a model I rejected because it was much slower and I didn’t believe the security it added was critical to my needs. As the Computerworld article states, “The Lexar JumpDrive Secure II offers three ways to protect data, but two of its methods [are] so awkward that the reviewer found them to be being more trouble than they were worth.”

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The decision is in. After a year and a half of testing, and with the help of more than a thousand Scot’s Newsletter readers who’ve written detailed descriptions of their software firewall experiences, I’m happy to announce that Tall Emu’s Online Armor 2.1 is The Scot’s Newsletter Blog Best Firewall Software of 2008.

There are many reasons why I’ve selected Online Armor (OA) as the best software firewall for Windows users; the rest of this story delivers the details. But boiled down to a single thought, the most important reason is this: Online Armor offers the best blend of a high degree of protection with a high level of usability.

That may sound simplistic, but in this software category such a balance is the toughest thing for a software development company to achieve. It’s very easy to throw up a blizzard of pop-up user-prompts. You can make your system so secure that you’ll never want to use it again. It’s also easy to dumb down the security so much that you’ll rarely, if ever, see a pop up — and in the process, render the firewall ineffective. The trick is to offer solid protection with minimal user interruptions. OA 2.1 is the only firewall software I’ve tested that delivers a near-perfect balance.

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Vista SP1 has been running on a couple of my test machines for the past month and a half or so. I’ve encountered nothing remarkable in that time, other than some initial driver configuration issues. I wrote about my initial experiences last month.

Now that Vista SP1 is on its way to you, and some people may have been offered it via Windows Update, here are my recommendations:

1. You don’t need this thing right away. If you’ve kept up with Vista security patches, then you’re fine. There’s no need to rush into it.

2. On the other hand, the biggest pain you’re likely to encounter with SP1 is driver issues during or after installation. The driver problem is so acute, though, that Microsoft has taken the unusual step of preventing machines whose hardware profiles include components for which Vista SP1 doesn’t have an adequate driver from offering SP1 via Windows Update or via Automatic Updates. For more detail on this, and a specific example of the kind of driver problem you might encounter, check this Preston Gralla blog entry: My Nightmare Trying to Upgrade to Vista SP1.

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Recent issues with my current webhost, IX Webhosting, have spurred me to initiate yet another search for a new host that offers more robust MySQL support. In a nutshell, I woke up one day early this week to discover that Scot’s Newsletter Forums was down and all its MySQL database files were deleted. I filed an immediate trouble ticket to tech support. Some 26 hours after the problem with the forums began, it miraculously reappeared with all data perfectly intact. But it wasn’t for another three days that IX actually answered my trouble ticket with a vague and wimpy note lacking any real explanation.

All in all, my IX experience has been much better than that with my last webhost, Invision Power Services (IPS), the company that makes Invision Power Board, the software that powers Scot’s Newsletter Forums. IPS was the worst webhost I’ve ever used. Other hosts I’ve used in past have included Hostway.net (reliable, surly tech support, not a great value) and SectorLink (bad reliability and support but I stopped using its services almost 5 years ago).

I have very specific needs, all of which need to be met, for me to move to any new webhost. They include:

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Online Armor 2.1.0.85 was quietly released on the Tall Emu website earlier today. The company posted information about the software firewall’s new features on its forums. I’ve tested several betas of this release, but many of the what’s-new items are server-dependent, and so I’m just exploring those nuances right now.

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