It does appear to me that the next=gen Prius will be a mild to moderate upgrade for 2009. But I don’t think that’s 100% definite. Toyota had originally planned for a major upgrade. My belief, though, is that the fact that lithium-ion batteries will apparently not be part of the equation means that the full advantage will not be delivered. But I am reading tea leaves. I could be wrong.

I completely agree with your points about resale value. I always buy vehicles with that thought in mind. Resale value considerations are actually a bit less important with computers, since the investment is lower and they tend to depreciate even more quickly than cars do. They also don’t last as long. Technology is moving much faster for PCs than it is for cars. (This is one of the reasons I’m attracted to Macs, which have longer effective lifespans.)

Finally, about the Volt and plug-ins. I’m a bit of naysayer right now. It’s not that I’m against experimentation with electric vehicles, or electric-primary vehicles (because some of these will be hybrids with smaller gas engines more as back-ups), but I remain a little skeptical about the timeframe. Also, since the cost of electricity is rising rapidly, and for the most part we are burning coal or oil to make electricity (or nuclear), I’m not sure of the true advantage — at least from a long-term perspective. Finally, I’m not fully convinced that the utility of such vehicles (the number of miles between charges, the performance on the highway, and so forth) will make them useful to a wide segment of the auto-buying public. I do think there will be a segment that’s fine with it, but it may require too much adaptation from the market place to be viable for auto makers. Because of all these things, I doubt we’ll see plug-ins that are successfully mass marketed before 2015. I’m not even sure that’s likely. But I’d love to hear why I’m wrong about that.

I don’t have complete faith in hydrogen. I’m not sure it’s going to happen. On the other hand, it remains the leading technical alternative to what we have today. My main hope is that government and industry put the serious time and funding into the R&D required to unearth a truly workable alternative. The time to get real about that was a couple of decades ago. We have a lot of catch-up to do.

– Scot

1) You better than most know when its time to buy a new computer. Do you wait for some new technology, or buy now. If you have a need then you buy now. There is ALWAYS something new coming around the corner. Unless there is going to be an order of magnitude improvement in the near future don’t wait. You need a car, so it is the right time.

2) Re-sale value. If the next generation of Prius is really a LOT better than the current model that will impact resale value. When you go to trade in your 2008 Prius in 2012 or 2013, the used car market could be focused on the improved 2009 model. I don’t think you will see a huge improvement with the 2009 model just an incremental one, so it shouldn’t have a large impact on trade-in or resale value. Probably less than $1,000 of an impact.

3) I am still on the fence about hybrids, though I am excited about GM’s plug-in hybrid, the Volt. Unfortunately, the Volt has its own issues (http://miniburb.wordpress.com/2008/05/27/gm-volt-too-expensive/). Long term environmental impacts and cost due to the batteries is my main concern. So maybe looking toward a Honda Fit or Civic or Toyota Carola with a high mileage, but tradition drive train might be better in the long run.

Personally I look forward to hydrogen powered cars, where the energy to remove hydrogen from water comes from solar power. I think this is a very promising long term solution. I just hope I live long enough to see it.

Scott (with two T’s)